Litigation Strategy and Case Evaluation
Exposure and Valuation
The analysis assigns probabilities to defined outcomes including defense verdict, various damages levels, and dispositive motion success, then weights each to produce a single expected figure.
It supports settlement authority and reserve setting.
Alternative Names:
Expected Value Analysis|Weighted Outcome Analysis
Why it Matters?
Explicit probability assignment forces the reasoning that narrative assessment leaves implicit, which surfaces disagreements among evaluators that would otherwise remain hidden. Decision trees incorporating dispositive motion outcomes produce more useful figures than single-stage weighting. The method's limitation is that it averages away tail risk, which is why downside exposure warrants separate treatment.
Frequently Confused with
Related terms
Frequently asked questions
What does explicit probability assignment accomplish?
What is the method's limitation?
